Long-Forms

This document assesses the fiscal situation of China’s local governments. It highlights their growing fiscal imbalance owing to falling revenues and rising expenditures. It underlines that the accumulation local debt, including hidden debt, has drastically limited the fiscal space of the local governments. Finally, it argues that the measures undertaken by the central leadership to alleviate the misery of the local government have been ineffective.

This essay points to structural problems in the current economy created, ironically, by three decades of remarkable economic success. He explains how policy options that China exercised in past economic downturns, such as the application of fiscal stimulus to pump prime the sluggish economy, are not available due to shrinking fiscal space caused by the growing debt-to-GDP ratio. The global pushback over Chinese exports and the sluggish domestic demand also act as drags on the economy at a time when China needs to restore growth and expand employment. Kumar explains why economic rebalancing without a fundamental change in both economic and foreign policy is a challenge.

This discussion document studies India’s import dependence on China and assesses the resultant extent of its strategic and critical vulnerability. Focusing the exercise on the three largest import categories – Organic Chemicals, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances, and Electrical Machinery and Equipment - the study identifies items that demand state attention in its overall de-risking strategy vis-à-vis China.

This discussion document offers an analysis of the power asymmetry between China and Russia. It assesses the China-Russia relationship on three parameters: geopolitical alignment, economic integration and military ties, to uncover the extent of Moscow’s dependence on Beijing to realise its overarching geostrategic goals.

This discussion document offers a comparative study of India and China’s consumption trends. The study attempts to compare the size and demography of the existing consumer base and the consumption expenditure. It reveals that India’s consumption figures are disproportionately higher than China’s for the size of its economy.

This document compares data on the Chinese economy, and assesses projections surrounding the rebounding of the economy in the aftermath of the scrapping of the Zero-COVID policy. It further highlights the headwinds facing the economy in key areas such as domestic consumption, real estate, net exports, local government debt, and Foreign Direct Investment.

This Policy Brief proposes that G20 countries must cooperate to mitigate asymmetry in crucial supply chain-related information among stakeholders across the value chain in order to address data asymmetry-induced disruptions. The G20 is best suited to create such a framework, given that they constitute 20 of the world’s largest economies and will have to directly confront the challenges of supply chain disruptions. 

This paper seeks to contribute to the understanding of China’s behaviour along the India-China border by exploring a fresh perspective that explains the instability along the border as a function of China’s two-front conundrum. It makes a historical account of past events to argue that China’s two-front threat perception is not new. It concludes that Beijing has  used instability along the LAC as a tool to manage its two-front threat.

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